Plunging Food Prices Drive Nigeria’s Inflation Down to 18.02%
By Patience Ikpeme
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate continued its downward trajectory in September 2025, falling by 2.1 percentage points to settle at 18.02 per cent, down from 20.12 per cent recorded in August 2025.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed on Wednesday that the reduction was primarily due to a substantial drop in the prices of food items.
The September figure marks the fourth consecutive month of reduction in food prices, a trend the NBS attributes to a combination of policy measures introduced by fiscal and monetary authorities. On a year-on-year basis, the September 2025 headline rate was 14.68 percentage points lower than the rate of 32.70 per cent recorded in September 2024.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, has publicly stated the bank’s commitment to achieving a single-digit inflation target in the due course.
The food inflation rate stood at 16.87 per cent on a year-on-year basis in September 2025. This rate is 20.9 percentage points lower than the 37.77 per cent recorded in September 2024, a significant annual decline the NBS noted was technically due to a change in the base year.
More critically, on a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in September 2025 saw a decrease of 1.57 per cent. This is a drop of 3.22 percentage points compared to the 1.65 per cent recorded in August 2025. The reduction in food inflation can be attributed to the falling average prices of key staples, including Maize (Corn) Grains, Garri, Beans, Millet, Potatoes, Onions, Eggs, Tomatoes, and Fresh Pepper, among others.
The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending September 2025 over the previous twelve-month average was 24.06 per cent, which is 13.47 percentage points lower than the 37.53 per cent recorded in September 2024.
Core inflation, which strips out the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 19.53 per cent in September 2025 on a year-on-year basis. This figure declined by 7.9 per cent when compared to the 27.43 per cent recorded in September 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, the Core Inflation rate was 1.42 per cent in September 2025, a marginal decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the 1.43 per cent recorded in August 2025. The average twelve-month annual Core inflation rate settled at 22.39 per cent for the twelve months ending September 2025, a drop of 3.25 percentage points compared to the 25.64 per cent recorded in September 2024.
On a Year-on-Year basis, the highest All Items inflation rates were recorded in Adamawa (23.69%), Katsina (23.53%), and Nasarawa (22.29%). The states that recorded the lowest rise in headline inflation were Anambra (9.28%), Niger (11.79%), and Bauchi (12.36%).
For the Month-on-Month change, Zamfara (9.36%), Adamawa (8.15%), and Nasarawa (7.49%) recorded the highest increases. Conversely, Niger (-8.14%), Oyo (-5.56%), and Bayelsa (-4.61%) recorded a decline in the Month-on-Month inflation rate.
In terms of Food inflation, the year-on-year rates were highest in Ekiti (28.68%), Rivers (24.18%), and Nasarawa (22.74%), while the slowest rises were seen in Bauchi (2.81%), Niger (8.38%), and Anambra (8.41%). On a month-on-month basis, Food inflation was highest in Zamfara (15.62%), Ekiti (12.77%), and Sokoto (12.55%). Three states recorded a decline in food inflation: Akwa Ibom (-12.97%), Borno (-12.95%), and Cross River (-10.36%).
