Nigeria’s Inflation Falls Further to 16.05% in October as NBS Reports Continued Slowdown
By Patience Ikpeme
Nigeria’s headline inflation continued its downward trajectory in October 2025, dropping to 16.05 per cent from 18.02 per cent recorded in September, according to new figures released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The decline marks another month of easing price pressures across the economy.
The NBS said the October figure represented a 1.96 per cent decrease compared to September 2025. Year-on-year, inflation fell sharply by 17.82 percentage points from the 33.88 per cent posted in October 2024.
“This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in October 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., October 2024), though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100,” the Bureau explained.
Despite the improvements on an annual basis, the month-on-month data indicated a slight acceleration in price increases. The NBS reported that the headline inflation rate on a monthly basis rose to 0.93 per cent, which is 0.21 percentage points higher than the 0.72 per cent recorded in September.
According to the agency, “This means that in October 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in September 2025.”
Food Inflation Drops Significantly Year-on-Year
Food inflation also showed substantial improvement. The NBS placed the food inflation rate at 13.12 per cent on a year-on-year basis, noting that it was “26.04 percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in October 2024 (39.16%).”
The bureau stated that the sharp reduction in annual food inflation is largely due to the change in the statistical base year. However, on a month-on-month basis, food prices rose slightly. “On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in October 2025 was -0.37%, up by 1.21% compared to September 2025 (-1.57%),” the report said.
The increase in monthly food inflation was driven by rising prices of several key food items. These include fresh onions, oranges, pineapple, shrimp, groundnuts, vegetables such as ugu and okazi leaf, and meat items including goat meat, cow tail, and liver.
The NBS further noted that the average annual food inflation rate for the twelve months ending October 2025 stood at 21.96 per cent. This represents a decline of 16.16 percentage points from the 38.12 per cent recorded in the corresponding period ending October 2024.
State-by-State Breakdown Shows Wide Variations
The inflation trend varied significantly across states. Ekiti recorded the highest all-items inflation rate at 20.14 per cent, followed by Nasarawa with 18.97 per cent and Zamfara with 18.81 per cent. States with the slowest rise in inflation included Bauchi (9.99%), Anambra (11.72%), and Gombe (11.73%) on a year-on-year basis.
In the month-on-month comparison, Niger and Anambra recorded the highest increases at 4.90 per cent each, followed closely by Enugu at 4.75 per cent. Meanwhile, Edo posted the steepest decline at -4.00 per cent, with Katsina at -3.26 per cent and Adamawa at -3.10 per cent also experiencing month-on-month drops.
Food Inflation by State
Food inflation figures also revealed regional differences. Year-on-year, Ogun recorded the highest food inflation at 20.85 per cent, followed by Nasarawa (19.96%) and Ekiti (19.70%). The slowest year-on-year increases were observed in Akwa Ibom (3.98%), Katsina (4.15%), and Yobe (4.29%).
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose the most in Bauchi (6.77%), Abuja (5.11%), and Niger (4.84%). In contrast, Katsina (-7.72%), Oyo (-5.89%), and Taraba (-4.89%) recorded notable declines.
The NBS said the data reflects ongoing adjustments in the economy influenced by supply conditions, seasonal factors, and the recalibrated base year.
