Nigeria’s GDP Growth Rises to 4.43% in Q2
By Patience Ikpeme
Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.43 per cent in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported, as stronger performances in agriculture and services helped to lift economic activity despite a sharp slowdown in the industrial sector.
The latest growth rate was 0.20 percentage points higher than the 4.23 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2025, indicating a modest improvement in economic performance. It was also stronger than the 4.23 per cent recorded in the same period last year, although the figures show that the pace of expansion remains moderate.
The NBS report showed that agriculture was one of the major drivers of the improvement, with the sector growing by 4.39 per cent year-on-year in real terms during the quarter, compared with 2.82 per cent in the second quarter of 2025 and 3.15 per cent in the first quarter of 2026.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, agricultural output increased by 17.80 per cent, reflecting the seasonal improvement normally associated with farming activities.
Agriculture accounted for 26.15 per cent of Nigeria’s real GDP in the quarter. Although this was slightly lower than its 26.17 per cent share in the second quarter of 2025, it represented a significant increase from the 23.16 per cent contribution recorded in the first quarter of 2026.
The services sector also continued to provide substantial support to the economy. It remained the fastest-growing of the three major sectors, recording a real growth rate of 4.60 per cent in the second quarter, compared with 3.94 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
The stronger performance of services came from activities including information and communication, real estate, trade, financial and insurance services and other service-related businesses.
However, the industrial sector recorded a major slowdown during the period. It grew by 3.96 per cent in real terms, compared with 7.46 per cent in the second quarter of 2025.
The decline in industrial growth means that the sector contributed less to the overall improvement in economic activity than it did a year earlier. The performance also points to the continued challenges facing businesses involved in manufacturing, construction, mining and other industrial activities.
Despite the slowdown in industry, the oil sector recorded a stronger performance compared with the first quarter of 2026. The sector grew by 7.31 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter, compared with 2.57 per cent in the first quarter.
However, the latest oil-sector growth rate was significantly below the 20.46 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2025.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector expanded by 10.91 per cent.
The improvement in oil production provided some support for the sector’s performance. Average daily crude oil production increased to 1.72 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, from 1.68 million barrels per day in the same quarter of 2025 and 1.55 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026.
The higher production level is important for Nigeria because crude oil remains a major source of foreign exchange and government revenue, even though the non-oil economy accounts for the overwhelming share of total economic activity.
The oil sector’s contribution to real GDP consequently rose slightly to 4.16 per cent in the second quarter, from 4.05 per cent in the same quarter of 2025 and 3.92 per cent in the first quarter of 2026.
The figures also show that Nigeria’s economic growth is becoming increasingly dependent on activities outside the oil industry.
The non-oil sector grew by 4.31 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, faster than the 3.64 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025 and the 3.94 per cent recorded in the first quarter of this year.
According to the NBS, the performance of the non-oil sector was driven mainly by agriculture, information and communication, real estate, trade, financial and insurance services, manufacturing and construction.
This means that while the recovery in oil production contributed to the economy’s performance, the bulk of the growth continued to come from non-oil activities that directly affect a much larger number of businesses and households.
In nominal terms, the size of Nigeria’s economy increased substantially during the quarter. Aggregate GDP stood at N119.29 trillion in Q2 2026, compared with N100.73 trillion in Q2 2025, representing an 18.43 per cent increase.
The NBS figures, however, indicate that the rise in nominal GDP should not be interpreted entirely as an increase in the volume of goods and services produced. Nominal GDP reflects both changes in economic output and changes in prices.
The difference between the nominal and real GDP figures is therefore important in assessing the underlying strength of the economy. While the economy expanded by 4.43 per cent after adjusting for price changes, the naira value of total output rose by 18.43 per cent.
The Q2 figures provide fresh evidence that Nigeria’s economy is continuing to expand, but they also point to uneven growth across sectors.
Agriculture recorded a considerable improvement from a year earlier, while services maintained their position as the strongest-growing major sector. Oil production also improved compared with the first quarter. At the same time, the industrial sector’s growth fell sharply from the level recorded a year earlier.
The challenge for policymakers and businesses will therefore be to turn the moderate GDP expansion into stronger and more broad-based growth that can translate into increased production, investment, employment and household incomes.
The latest figures also come as the Federal Government continues to implement economic reforms aimed at stabilising the economy, increasing revenue, attracting investment and improving production.
For ordinary Nigerians, however, the significance of GDP growth goes beyond the headline figure. Sustained economic expansion would need to be accompanied by increased job opportunities, improved purchasing power, greater business activity and lower pressure on household incomes before its benefits can be widely felt.
The Q2 2026 performance suggests that the economy is moving in the right direction, but the relatively modest real growth rate and the sharp slowdown in industrial output show that significant challenges remain.
The NBS data therefore present a mixed picture: Nigeria recorded faster overall growth than a year earlier, agriculture and services performed better, oil production increased and the non-oil economy strengthened, but industrial growth weakened considerably.
The 4.43 per cent expansion ultimately points to an economy that is growing, but one whose recovery still needs to become broader and stronger to deliver a more meaningful improvement in living standards.
