Nigeria’s Economic Future at Risk due to Climate Change
By Patience Ikpeme
Nigeria faces a potential economic catastrophe due to climate change, with estimates suggesting cumulative losses of up to $460 billion by 2050.
Without concrete adaptation measures, the country could lose between six percent and 30 percent of its GDP by mid-century.
This disclosure was made by Professor Chukwumerije Okereke at the Policy Conversation on “Nigeria, Climate Change and the Green Economy,” hosted by Agora Policy yesterday in Abuja.
“Agriculture, water resources, health, and transport sectors are particularly vulnerable to climate change, with expected annual losses reaching $5.5 billion by 2050” he said.
In addition, Prof Okereke who along with three others prepared the report on climate change and green economy in Nigeria warned that the country risks losing billions and up to trillions in stranded assets as the world transitions to a low-carbon economy.
According to Prof. Okereke, “calculating the precise economic toll of climate change in Nigeria remains a daunting task. However, estimations point to staggering figures, projecting potential cumulative losses of up to $100 billion by 2020 and a staggering $460 billion by 2050.
“A report from the World Bank in 2006 foresaw between two to ten percent of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Investment and approximately 40 percent of official development assistance being susceptible to the impacts of climate change”.
He warned that “without concerted efforts to fortify Nigeria’s economy against climate change through effective adaptation measures, projections indicate a substantial blow, amounting to six to 30 percent of its GDP by 2050. This equates to an accumulative loss ranging from $100 billion to $460 billion”.
“Key sectors such as agriculture, water resources, health, and transport face estimated annual losses of $3.06 billion by 2020, potentially escalating to $5.50 billion by 2050 if proactive mitigation strategies are not implemented promptly” he said.
The Professor added that the repercussions extend beyond mere financial loss. “The looming threat of asset stranding looms large, potentially leading to the devaluation of significant investments.
The changing landscape of global climate policies and the pursuit of carbon neutrality necessitate leaving substantial fossil fuel reserves untouched, thereby rendering certain assets obsolete.
The acceleration towards less carbon-intensive technologies further exacerbates the risk of asset devaluation, a phenomenon known as asset stranding”.
Earlier, Mr. Waziri Adio, Founder of Agora Policy, emphasized the pressing nature of the climate crisis. He stressed that climate change is not a distant threat but an immediate and multi-dimensional challenge that demands deliberate and resolute action.
Highlighting the country’s energy vulnerabilities amidst a global shift away from fossil fuels, he underscored the urgent need to address these concerns to avert a looming catastrophe. Adio also pointed out the broader geopolitical ramifications arising from this transition and the urgency to position the nation strategically in the emerging economic landscape.
To avert this impending crisis, Nigeria he said must act urgently to strengthen its national climate policy frameworks, institutional capacity, and climate funding. Ensuring a just and fair energy transition, increasing public awareness of climate change, and adopting a collaborative approach with targeted sectoral interventions are also essential.
