NESG Warns Against Policy Reversal: “2026 is a Make-or-Break Year”
By Patience Ikpeme
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has issued a stern caution against the mounting pressure to roll back current economic policies, stating that such a move could plummet national growth back to crisis-era levels of roughly 2 percent.
Speaking at a quarterly media engagement in the nation’s capital on Friday, the NESG leadership portrayed the current fiscal year as a definitive crossroads for the country. Dr. Joseph Ogebe, the group’s Head of Research, noted that while the economy has clawed its way back from the brink, the path to recovery remains fragile.
“What we see is that growth could go to around 2 to 3 percent if the policies are being reversed,” Dr. Ogebe said. He pointed out that Nigeria’s growth trajectory has recently climbed to approximately 3.9 percent from the 2.5–2.9 percent range recorded in 2023. This recovery, he noted, was accompanied by a significant drop in inflation, which moderated from a peak of nearly 40 percent in 2023 to 15.06 percent in February 2026.
However, Dr. Ogebe clarified that these macroeconomic wins have yet to reach the pockets of average Nigerians. He labeled 2026 as a “make-or-break year” for the administration to ensure stability leads to better livelihoods. He argued that the current growth is too narrow, concentrated in finance, ICT, and oil, while labor-heavy sectors like agriculture and manufacturing continue to struggle.
The researcher also dismissed the idea of returning to past subsidy regimes, which he blamed for crippling the nation’s development budget. “We were actually borrowing to pay for subsidy. There was no money to spend on capital and development projects. That is not where we should go now,” Dr. Ogebe said.
Echoing these sentiments, Olusegun Omisakin, the NESG Chief Economist and Director of Research, described the economy as being in a “consolidation phase” following a period of near-collapse. He warned that abandoning the current direction would only invite back the systemic rot that previously stalled progress.
“If today we announce that the subsidy should be reversed, you are still going to see what we used to see before… government has no money for capital development… a lot of inefficiency in the system,” Mr. Omisakin said. He suggested that the national conversation should pivot away from reversal and toward improving the machinery of government. “The attention should be towards creating a system that makes reforms work rather than reversing systems that we are not seeing working for now.”
Mr. Omisakin cited the economic difficulties faced by Ghana following policy reversals as a cautionary tale for Nigerian lawmakers. While he acknowledged that foreign exchange access and capital inflows are showing early signs of health, he maintained that the long-term trajectory depends entirely on the discipline maintained during this period.
Adding a perspective on the social contract, the Head of Public Affairs and Public Policy Development at NESG, Seun Ojo, stated that the success of any economic shift relies on its ability to survive political cycles. She said the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit centered on turning high-level gains into “productivity, resilience, and fairness” for the general population.
Ms. Ojo concluded that the government must bridge the gap with its citizens to ensure the longevity of these changes. She said that restoring public trust through transparency and consistent citizen engagement is the only way to deliver an economic transformation that is both sustainable and inclusive.
