Reform Gains Will Propel Nigeria to Investment‑Grade by 2030 — Uzoka‑Anite
By Patience Ikpeme
Nigeria says measurable reform gains are central to its bid for investment‑grade sovereign credit status by 2030, with policy changes since 2023 starting to stabilise the macroeconomy and strengthen investor confidence.
Dr. Doris Uzoka‑Anite, Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning, made the remarks in her keynote address at DataPro Limited’s 2026 International Credit Rating Webinar on October 8, themed “Achieving Investment‑Grade Rating By 2030: The Roadmap for Nigeria.”
She said sovereign ratings signal investor confidence in institutions, policy consistency and the capacity to attract long‑term capital. “Investment grade should be the outcome of stronger economic fundamentals, sustainable public finances, improved debt dynamics, rising productivity, stronger external buffers and credible institutions — not an end in itself,” she said.
Uzoka‑Anite set out a four‑pillar path: fiscal health and domestic revenue mobilisation, debt sustainability, economic diversification and productivity, and institutional credibility.
Under the National Development Plan (NDP) 2026–2030, revenue is projected to rise from 11.15% of GDP in 2025 to 18.70% by 2030, while capital expenditure is targeted to increase from 36.03% to 57.43% of total spending.
She warned the projections depend on effective reforms and stronger collection efficiency. “These are Plan projections whose achievement will depend on effective reforms and improved collection efficiency,” she said.
On debt, the NDP envisages public debt falling from 36.07% of GDP in 2025 to 18.83% by 2030 and the federal government’s debt‑service‑to‑revenue ratio dropping from 62.93% to 21.01%. Financing will include Sukuk, green bonds and structured public‑private partnerships, subject to tight fiscal‑risk management. “The guiding principle must be that borrowing should expand productive capacity rather than perpetuate fiscal pressures,” Uzoka‑Anite said.
The Plan’s preferred scenario targets nominal output near US$1 trillion by 2030, with real GDP growth averaging 7.79% over the period and gross capital formation rising to 40% of GDP, about 72% of which is expected from the private sector. She acknowledged the targets are demanding and require improvements in infrastructure, energy supply, access to finance, regulatory efficiency and policy predictability.
Reviewing recent performance, Uzoka‑Anite noted real GDP growth averaged 3.11% between 2021 and 2025, while the World Bank reported 3.87% growth in 2025 and the IMF projected 4.1% for 2026. The IMF also estimated a 2025 consolidated fiscal deficit of 4.4% of GDP, underlining the need for fiscal adjustment and stronger revenue mobilisation.
She highlighted reforms since 2023 — petrol subsidy removal, FX market liberalisation, public financial management upgrades and four tax laws enacted in 2025 — and said their success should be judged by effects on jobs, production costs and living standards.
To strengthen monitoring and policy credibility, the ministry is institutionalising a National Macroeconomic Dashboard and has established a Macroeconomic Assumptions Standing Committee to report to the Economic Management Team.
Recent GDP and CPI rebasing, Uzoka‑Anite said, present an opportunity to improve statistical measurement. “Stronger credit ratings and macroeconomic indicators must ultimately translate into improved living standards,” she said, linking national reforms with the Renewed Hope Ward‑Based Development Programme covering 8,809 wards.
On rating agencies, she described their role as providing “independent assessments” that identify reform gaps and resilience needs. “The journey to stronger sovereign creditworthiness depends on consistent reforms, sound data and effective implementation,” Uzoka‑Anite said.
DataPro founder Abimbola Adeseyoju said credit ratings are now “a catalyst for economic transformation,” urging African countries to pursue structural reform, deepen capital markets and adopt context‑aware rating methodologies.
