Nigeria’s Inflation Falls to 15.43% in July
By Patience Ikpeme
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell further to 15.43 per cent in July 2026, from 15.91 per cent in June, as the country recorded another monthly decline in the overall pace of price increases.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its Consumer Price Index report released on Monday, said the July figure represented a 0.48 percentage-point reduction from the previous month.
The latest decline comes as the country continues to experience changes in the prices of food, household goods and other consumer items. However, the figures also showed that the improvement in annual inflation was accompanied by renewed pressure on food prices during the month.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation dropped to 1.57 per cent in July from 1.66 per cent in June, indicating that the average pace at which consumer prices increased during the month slowed by 0.09 percentage points.
The development is expected to provide some relief to households and businesses, although the continuing increase in food prices means that many Nigerians may still face significant pressure on their household budgets.
The NBS report showed that food inflation, which remains one of the major drivers of the cost-of-living crisis, stood at 20.31 per cent year-on-year in July.
Although this was considerably lower than the 26.20 per cent recorded in July 2025, food prices increased faster during the month when measured on a month-to-month basis.
Food inflation rose to 5.56 per cent in July from 3.75 per cent in June, representing an increase of 1.82 percentage points.
The statistics agency attributed the monthly increase to movements in the prices of several food items, including crayfish, fresh pepper, onions, carrots, rice, water yam, tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger and plantain flour.
This means that while the annual rate of food inflation has fallen substantially compared with the same period last year, consumers continued to experience fresh increases in the prices of several essential food items in July.
For households already struggling with high food costs, the monthly increase remains a major concern because food accounts for a large share of household spending, particularly among low-income families.
The figures also showed a sharp moderation in core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices. Core inflation stood at 14.97 per cent year-on-year in July 2026. On a month-on-month basis, it declined to 0.15 per cent from 1.66 per cent in June.
The substantial fall in monthly core inflation suggests that price pressures outside the more volatile food and energy components weakened considerably during the month.
Despite the national decline, however, inflation continued to vary widely across the country, with some states recording significantly higher price increases than others.
Adamawa recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation rate at 33.03 per cent, meaning that consumer prices in the state were substantially higher than they were a year earlier.
It was followed by Yobe at 25.21 per cent and Anambra at 23.99 per cent. At the other end of the scale, Nasarawa recorded the lowest year-on-year headline inflation rate at 7.86 per cent, followed by Kebbi and Borno, both at 9.12 per cent.
The wide gap between the highest and lowest state figures shows that the inflation experience of Nigerian households continues to differ considerably depending on where they live.
The monthly figures also showed significant differences across the states. Adamawa recorded the highest month-on-month headline inflation rate at 12.48 per cent, followed by Anambra at 9.95 per cent and Delta at 9.54 per cent.
In contrast, Niger recorded a negative monthly inflation rate of 5.86 per cent, while Enugu recorded negative 5.71 per cent and Kebbi negative 4.89 per cent.
Negative month-on-month inflation means that, on average, the prices captured by the index declined in those states during the month.
The differences were even more pronounced in the food inflation figures. Adamawa recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation rate at 51.36 per cent, meaning that food prices in the state were more than half higher than they were a year earlier. Katsina followed with 30.84 per cent, while Zamfara recorded 30.65 per cent.
Borno, however, recorded negative year-on-year food inflation of 0.31 per cent, indicating a slight decline in food prices compared with the corresponding period of 2025.
Nasarawa recorded food inflation of 6.88 per cent, while Kebbi recorded 12.50 per cent, making them among the states with the slowest annual increases in food prices.
The month-on-month food inflation figures showed another sharp contrast among states. Adamawa recorded the highest increase at 17.02 per cent, followed by Lagos at 13.48 per cent and Borno at 13.26 per cent.
Jigawa recorded a negative food inflation rate of 3.68 per cent, followed by Kebbi at negative 3.67 per cent and Bauchi at negative 1.85 per cent.
The NBS figures therefore point to a mixed inflation picture in July. At the national level, headline inflation continued its downward movement, while annual food inflation was also substantially lower than its level a year earlier. At the same time, food prices recorded a stronger monthly increase, showing that the cost-of-living challenge has not disappeared.
The latest data will also be closely watched by economic policymakers as they assess whether the recent moderation in inflation is becoming sustained or whether fluctuations in food and other essential commodity prices could slow the improvement.
For consumers, the fall in the headline inflation rate does not mean that prices have returned to previous levels. Rather, it means that prices are increasing at a slower rate than before. Items that became more expensive over the past year generally remain expensive, even if the speed of further increases is slowing.
The distinction is important for households because a reduction in the inflation rate does not automatically translate into lower prices in shops and markets.
The July figures therefore provide some evidence of easing inflationary pressure, particularly outside food and energy, but the renewed monthly rise in food inflation shows that Nigerians may continue to face pressure from the cost of basic food items.
The performance of food prices across the states also suggests that local supply conditions, transportation costs, market access and other state-specific factors continue to influence the prices paid by consumers.
Overall, the NBS data showed that Nigeria’s inflation rate maintained its downward trend in July, with headline inflation declining from 15.91 per cent to 15.43 per cent and core inflation recording a particularly sharp slowdown on a monthly basis.
However, the acceleration in monthly food inflation remains a major challenge, particularly for households whose incomes are largely spent on food and other necessities.
