CBN Governor Projects Continued Drop in Inflation Rate
By Patience Ikpeme
Nigeria’s inflation rate is expected to “continue to trend downward in the near term,” supported by tight monetary policies, a stable naira, and improved food supply, according to the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr. Olayemi Cardoso.
The CBN Governor made the forecast at the ongoing Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group in Washington D.C., a day after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that the headline inflation rate had fallen to 18.02 per cent in September.
The drop to 18.02 per cent marks the sixth consecutive month of decline in Nigeria’s headline inflation and its lowest level in three years. The new NBS data shows that Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, slowed to 19.53 per cent, while food inflation moderated to 16.87 per cent over the same period.
This sustained decline is a significant reversal from the inflationary peak of 34.19 per cent in June 2024, reflecting the impact of the CBN’s decisive monetary policy actions.
Mr. Cardoso confirmed the bank’s commitment to further strengthening this trend. “We expect inflation to continue to trend downward in the near term, supported by tight monetary conditions, a stable naira, and increased food supply,” Mr. Cardoso stated.
He added that the CBN remains committed to strengthening the disinflation trend, supported by a combination of exchange rate stability, durable improvements in food supply, and continued moderation in petroleum product prices.
The disinflation trend follows a sustained tightening cycle where the CBN raised its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 18.75 per cent to 27.50 per cent. At its September 2025 meeting, the bank slightly eased the policy, lowering the MPR by 50 basis points to 27.00 per cent and the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for commercial banks to 45 per cent, while maintaining an anti-inflationary stance.
Monetary policy measures have been complemented by reforms in the foreign exchange market, including exchange rate unification and enhanced transparency.
This has led to the naira stabilising, with the spread between the official and Bureau de Change (BDC) rates narrowing to below 2 per cent. Improved liquidity in the FX market has helped reduce the pass-through of imported inflation.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves remain above $43 billion, providing more than eleven months of forward import cover, supported by sustained forex inflows.
