4.43% GDP Growth Puts Nigeria on $1tn Path-Oyedele
By Patience Ikpeme
The Federal Government has expressed confidence that Nigeria is on course to achieve its ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2030 following the latest growth figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which showed that the economy expanded by 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said the latest performance, which was stronger than the 3.89 per cent recorded in the first quarter of the year and 4.23 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, showed that economic activity was gaining strength.
Oyedele said the latest figures were encouraging because growth was spreading across more areas of the economy rather than being driven by only a few sectors. He noted that 27 economic subsectors recorded growth of more than three per cent in the second quarter, compared with 23 subsectors in the corresponding period of 2025.
He said the development had also taken the economy’s growth for the first half of 2026 to 4.16 per cent, compared with 3.68 per cent in the first half of 2025.
According to the minister, the stronger performance recorded by key productive sectors was an important part of the economic recovery. Manufacturing grew by 3.24 per cent in the second quarter, more than twice the 1.60 per cent recorded a year earlier, while agriculture increased by 4.39 per cent from 2.82 per cent.
The services sector, which remains the biggest contributor to economic activity, also expanded by 4.60 per cent compared with 3.94 per cent in the second quarter of 2025.
Oyedele said the figures showed that the government’s economic reforms were beginning to support wider economic activity and create a stronger foundation for future growth.
He also pointed to the relative stability of the naira as another factor supporting the improvement in the economy when measured in dollar terms.
According to him, the naira gained more than 12 per cent between the first halves of 2025 and 2026, helping the economy increase by about 17 per cent in US dollar terms during the period.
Oyedele said this improvement, if sustained alongside government social programmes, could help increase the purchasing power of Nigerians and reduce poverty.
“This momentum puts Nigeria in a stronger position to consolidate its standing among Africa’s largest economies and advance towards our target of a US$1 trillion economy by 2030,” he said.
The minister’s confidence in the $1 trillion target comes against the background of a series of recent improvements in Nigeria’s economic indicators and international perception.
The latest GDP figures followed Nigeria’s recent positive developments in the international financial market, including Moody’s Ratings’ decision to move the country’s sovereign credit outlook from stable to positive while retaining its B3 rating.
Nigeria has also been cleared by FTSE Russell to return to Frontier Market status from September 21, 2026, after improvements in foreign exchange liquidity and the ability of foreign investors to move their capital into and out of the country.
For the Federal Government, the combination of stronger economic growth, improved foreign exchange conditions and renewed investor confidence provides a more favourable environment for achieving faster economic expansion.
Oyedele said the International Monetary Fund had also placed Nigeria among the 10 countries expected to make the largest contributions to global real GDP growth in 2026, with Nigeria projected to account for about 1.5 per cent of global growth.
He said continued economic stability, stronger performance by productive sectors and improved investor confidence could further strengthen Nigeria’s position among the world’s growing economies.
However, achieving a $1 trillion economy within the next four years would require Nigeria to maintain strong growth and significantly increase productivity across the economy.
For ordinary Nigerians, the importance of the target will ultimately depend on whether a larger economy produces more jobs, better incomes, lower business costs and improved living standards.
The government will therefore need to ensure that the current improvement in GDP is sustained, while addressing challenges that continue to affect businesses and households, including electricity costs, infrastructure gaps, access to affordable credit, food prices and exchange-rate uncertainty.
The manufacturing sector in particular will need continued support because industrial expansion can create jobs and reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported goods. Agriculture will also have to maintain its growth to improve food supply and support millions of farmers and businesses along the agricultural value chain.
Oyedele said the government would continue with its economic reforms and maintain policy consistency so that the improvement in the major economic indicators could translate into wider benefits for Nigerians.
“These results show the importance of sustaining our reforms and ensuring policy consistency as their benefits begin to reach households across the country,” he said.
He added that the government’s focus remained on accelerating inclusive growth and ensuring that the improvement in the economy translated into better opportunities and greater prosperity for Nigerian families.
The latest NBS figures therefore provide the government with a stronger basis for its $1 trillion ambition, but sustaining the momentum will be critical.
Nigeria will need to maintain growth at a strong pace, expand productive capacity, attract substantial private investment and ensure that the gains from economic expansion reach a much wider section of the population.
For the government, the 4.43 per cent growth is not the destination but an important step towards the much larger economic transformation it hopes to achieve by 2030.
